Moore's Law - Doubling the Trends

"How Long Will the Moore's Law Hold Out"

Back in the 1600s, a "Computer" was a person who was appointed to carry out calculations. Till about 100 years ago, no one would have imagined the strides technology would take and now we are busy in knowing how far the strides will reach.

In such a quest was Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, who, in a 1965 article in Electronics Magazine made an observation that seemed too audacious to be true. He saw a trend, that would be, and still is the driving force behind computer technology. He noted, " the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965" and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years". This is not a law of physics, but is a mere observation.

Gordon Moore, co-founder - Intel

The law, or trend, states that the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. And as startling as it may seem, this trend has continued for more than half a century and is expected to continue until 2020. I am no computer expert, so on technical terms, I quote some websites. Here's one that says, "We are now used to a scenario in which this observation has turned into a law of nature in the chip manufacturing industry and appears to have become the major force to drive semiconductor innovation." Take a look at the graph below which shows this trend clearly.

If you notice, the Moore's Law has been 'Made Real' by Intel, which recently came out with the new Tri-Gate Transistor, or 3-D Transistor. Now, the Moore's Law does affect us as computer users, if not for integrated circuits becoming more integrated, laptops would fit in a whole room. Only real professionals in the semiconductor industry really know whats going on behind the scenes, and mere mortals like us can only look up and gore at what comes by, along with, of course, benefiting from using these innovations.

Now, there is a similar law called the Kryder's Law applicable to hard disk storage cost per unit of information. Also, the camera industry has its own version of 'Pixels per Dollar' law.

Well, now coming to the question, "How long will this trend hold out?" Is there any time when we will exhaust our silicon technologies, or is there a time when silicon will be replaced, by say Quantum Computing? You have your answer from Gordon Moore himself, who in April 2005 stated that the law cannot be sustained indefinitely: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens." Well, if this trend continues, then by 2050 we'll have robots who are our masters and control us! Probably, if someone masters Quantum Computing, harnessing the power of individual atoms, the Silicon industry may cease to exist, according to some futurists. Futurist Ray Kurzweil, an optimistic as far as the Moore's Law is concerned, says that by 2045 Machine will become equal to Man, and calls this the 'Singularity'.

There are two perspectives here. One. If the Moore's Law ceases to exist then we will have a better option replacing it. Two. If it continues for more decades, then we will have better processors and better computers.

Till then, live with the fact that after 2020, one of the above two scenarios will arise, and 2020 will be no doubt the acid test year for the Moore's Law.

Later!

The above post is part sourced from the web, part from videos and part original writing.